Forest Disturbance and Disease: Exploring the Effects of Tree Harvesting Area on Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato Infection Risk, Vancouver Island, Canada, 1998-2014.

BACKGROUND: The disturbance of colonized trees and soil, such as through forestry activities, has been proposed to disperse soil- and tree-inhabiting fungal pathogens. Cryptococcus gattii sensu lato is one such pathogen that was detected on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, beginning in 1999 and caused human and animal illness. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to determine if C. gattii s.l. human case incidence on Vancouver Island was correlated with the intensity of landscape-level tree harvesting occurring near human settlement areas. METHODS: We created buffers around human settlement areas with radii increments of 2.5km, from 2.5 to 20km, and summed the area of annual tree harvests occurring within each buffer zone. We then performed Spearman rank-order correlation to measure the association between case incidence and annual tree harvest intensity at each radius from 1998 through 2014. RESULTS: The incidence of C. gattii was positively correlated with tree harvesting intensity only at distances of 7.5km (r=0.66, p=0.004) and 10km (r=0.64, p=0.005) from human settlement areas. As annual tree harvesting area increased between 1999 and 2003, so did annual C. gattii incidence in humans, before both plateaued around 2002 and decreased after 2007. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that tree harvesting plays a role in the spread of C. gattii on Vancouver Island. This may be due to tree cutting or soil disturbance facilitating the aerosolization of spores to increase infection risk. This research also illustrates the contribution that geographic information systems can make to public health research on environmental disturbance and disease outbreaks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12396.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America.

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation. Here, a mechanistic movement model was applied to landscapes of eastern North America to explore 1) relationships between multiple ecological drivers and the speed of the northward invasion of blacklegged ticks infected with the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and 2) its capacity to simulate the northward range expansion of infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks under theoretical scenarios of increasing temperature. Our results suggest that the attraction of migratory birds (long-distance tick dispersal hosts) to resource-rich areas during their spring migration and the mate-finding Allee effect in tick population dynamics are key drivers for the spread of infected blacklegged ticks. The modeled increases in temperature extended the climatically suitable areas of Canada for infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks towards higher latitudes by up to 31% and 1%, respectively, and with an average predicted speed of the range expansion reaching 61 km/year and 23 km/year, respectively. Differences in the projected spatial distribution patterns of these tick species were due to differences in climate envelopes of tick populations, as well as the availability and attractiveness of suitable habitats for migratory birds. Our results indicate that the northward invasion process of lone star ticks is primarily driven by local dispersal of resident terrestrial hosts, whereas that of blacklegged ticks is governed by long-distance migratory bird dispersal. The results also suggest that mechanistic movement models provide a powerful approach for predicting tick-borne disease risk patterns under complex scenarios of climate, socioeconomic and land use/land cover changes.

Comparing Control Intervention Scenarios for Raccoon Rabies in Southern Ontario between 2015 and 2025.

The largest outbreak of raccoon rabies in Canada was first reported in Hamilton, Ontario, in 2015 following a probable translocation event from the United States. We used a spatially-explicit agent-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of provincial control programs in an urban-centric outbreak if control interventions were used until 2025, 2020, or never used. Calibration tests suggested that a seroprevalence of protective rabies antibodies 2.1 times higher than that inferred from seroprevalence in program assessments was required in simulations to replicate observed raccoon rabies cases. Our simulation results showed that if control interventions with an adjusted seroprevalence were used until 2025 or 2020, the probability of rabies elimination due to control intervention use was 49.2% and 42.1%, respectively. However, if controls were never used, the probability that initial rabies cases failed to establish a sustained outbreak was only 18.2%. In simulations where rabies was not successfully eliminated, using control interventions until 2025 resulted in 67% fewer new infections compared to only applying controls until 2020 and in 90% fewer new infections compared to no control intervention use. However, the model likely underestimated rabies elimination rates since we did not adjust for adaptive control strategies in response to changes in rabies distributions and case numbers, as well as extending control interventions past 2025. Our agent-based model offers a cost-effective strategy to evaluate approaches to rabies control applications.

Scoping Review and Bibliometric Analysis of the Term "Planetary Health" in the Peer-Reviewed Literature.

Background: Planetary health is an emerging holistic health field to foster interdisciplinary collaborations, integrate Indigenous knowledge, facilitate education, and drive public and policy engagement. To understand to what extent the field has successfully met these goals, we conducted a scoping review and bibliometric analysis. Methods: We searched 15 databases from 2005 to 2019 for peer-reviewed publications with the term "planetary health" in the title, abstract and/or keywords, with no language or geographical location limitations. We classified results into four categories (commentaries, comprehensive syntheses, educational material, and original research) and categorized original research according to expert-derived planetary health themes. Our bibliometric analysis highlighted publications over time, collaborations, and networks of keywords. Findings: Only 8.1% (n = 22) were research articles. Publications rose rapidly from 8 to 64 publications per year in 2015-2018. The top five author affiliation countries for most publications were the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, and the top five collaborations were a subset of pairwise combinations between the US, UK, Australia, and Canada. The most common author keywords were the following: planetary health, climate change, ecology, and non-communicable diseases. Keyword co-occurrences clustered around high-level concepts (e.g., Anthropocene) and food system-related topics; two clusters lacked a theme. Interpretation: We show that the term planetary health is used mainly in commentary-like publications, not original research. Additionally, more global collaborations are lacking. Interdisciplinary work, as represented by keyword co-occurrence networks, is developing but could potentially be extended. The planetary health community should promote more worldwide research and interdisciplinary collaborations.

Nets versus spraying: A spatial modelling approach reveals indoor residual spraying targets Anopheles mosquito habitats better than mosquito nets in Tanzania.

The global implementation of malaria interventions has averted hundreds of millions of clinical malaria cases in the last decade. This study assesses predicted Anopheles mosquito distributions across the United Republic of Tanzania before large-scale insecticide-treated net (ITN) rollouts and indoor residual spraying (IRS) initiatives to determine whether mosquito net usage by children under the age of five and IRS are targeted to areas where historical evidence indicates mosquitoes thrive. Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2011-2012 and 2015-2016 include detailed measurements of mosquito net and IRS use across Tanzania. Anopheline data are far less intensively collected, but we constructed a Maxent-built baseline mosquito habitat suitability (MHS) map (AUC = 0.872) with Tanzanian Anopheles occurrence records from 1999-2003. This MHS model was tested against independently-observed georeferenced Plasmodium falciparum cases from the Malaria Atlas Project, with ~87% of cases from 1999-2003 (n = 107) and ~84% of cases from 1985-2012 (n = 919) occurring in areas of high predicted suitability for mosquitoes. We compared the validated MHS with subsequent malaria interventions using mixed effects logistic regression. Specifically, we assessed whether Anopheles habitat suitability related to the frequency that ≥1 child in a household reportedly slept under a mosquito net when that intervention later became widely available, and whether IRS was reportedly applied to dwellings over a one-year period. There was no evidence that mosquito net use the night before the survey related to MHS from 2011-2012 and marginally significant evidence (p<0.05) from 2015-2016 (ß = 1.466, 95% C.I. = 0.848-2.103, marginal R2 = 0.020, respectively). However, the likelihood of IRS treatments rose relatively strongly in the 12 months prior to both surveys (ß = 13.466, 95% C.I. = 10.488-16.456, marginal R2 = 0.144, and ß = 6.817, 95% C.I. = 5.439-8.303, marginal R2 = 0.136, respectively). IRS treatments have therefore been targeted more effectively than mosquito nets toward areas where anopheline habitat suitability was previously found to be high.

Searching for clues for eighteen years: Deciphering the ecological determinants of Cryptococcus gattii on Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

Cryptococcus gattii emerged on Vancouver Island in 1999 for unknown reasons, causing human and animal fatalities and illness. The apparent emergence of this fungus in another temperate area, this time in the Pacific Northwest, suggests the fungus may have expanded its ecological niche. Yet studies that directly examine the potential roles of climatic and land use changes on C. gattii are still lacking. We aim to summarize the existing global literature on the ecology of C. gattii, with particular focus on the gap in knowledge surrounding the potential effects of climatic and land use changes. We systematically reviewed English peer-reviewed literature on the ecological determinants of C. gattii. We included studies published from January 1970 through June 2016 and identified 56 relevant studies for our review. We identified environmental isolations of C. gattii from 18 countries, spanning 72 separate regions across six continents. Fifty-three tree species were associated with C. gattii, spanning 10 climate classifications and 36 terrestrial ecoregions. No studies directly tested the potential effects of climatic changes (including climatic oscillations and global climate change) on C. gattii, while only one study directly assessed those of land use change. To improve model predictions of current and future distributions of C. gattii, more focus is needed on the potential effects of climatic and land use changes to help decrease the public health risk. The apparent emergence of C. gattii in British Columbia is also an opportunity to explore the factors behind emerging infectious diseases in Canada and elsewhere.

Looking forward by looking back: using historical calibration to improve forecasts of human disease vector distributions.

Arthropod disease vectors, most notably mosquitoes, ticks, tsetse flies, and sandflies, are strongly influenced by environmental conditions and responsible for the vast majority of global vector-borne human diseases. The most widely used statistical models to predict future vector distributions model species niches and project the models forward under future climate scenarios. Although these methods address variations in vector distributions through space, their capacity to predict changing distributions through time is far less certain. Here, we review modeling methods used to validate and forecast future distributions of arthropod vectors under the effects of climate change and outline the uses or limitations of these techniques. We then suggest a validation approach specific to temporal extrapolation models that is gaining momentum in macroecological modeling and has great potential for epidemiological modeling of disease vectors. We performed systematic searches in the Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar to identify peer-reviewed English journal articles that model arthropod disease vector distributions under future environment scenarios. We included studies published up to and including June, 2014. We identified 29 relevant articles for our review. The majority of these studies predicted current species niches and projected the models forward under future climate scenarios without temporal validation. Historically calibrated forecast models improve predictions of changing vector distributions by tracking known shifts through recently observed time periods. With accelerating climate change, accurate predictions of shifts in disease vectors are crucial to target vector control interventions where needs are greatest.